SHFC (Southampton) vs NFFC (Nottingham Forest) Match Prediction

SHFC

55%

Chance of Winning

NFFC

45%

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England

Mary's Stadium

Since their promotion, Southampton will face off against Nottingham Forest in their first home game in the Premier League. Southampton go into this game on the back of a heartfelt loss against Newcastle United in their first game. The Magpies were reduced to 10 men as Schar was sent off for a headbutt on Diaz. An error from Southampton keeper McCarthy saw Newcastle United take the lead. The Saints could not get past Nick Pope in goal as they registered a total of 19 shots in the game. The two best chances fell to Armstrong; however, even he was not clinical enough on the day, handing them their first defeat of the season.

Nottingham Forest would have been disappointed with their first game of the season at home. The Tricky Trees were held to a 1-1 draw at home against Bournemouth at the City Ground. Forest dominated most spells of that game, with Chris Wood scoring early with a well-taken finish. Forest failed to kill the Cherries off with a second goal, which came to bite them in the end as Bournemouth equalised in the dying minutes through Semenyo.

Facts:

  • Southampton have never had good luck when it comes to playing at home against Nottingham Forest. The Saints are yet to win a game at home against the Tricky Trees in the Premier League. 2 of their wins have come at the City Ground. Forest have done quite well playing away at Southampton, as they have won 4 and drawn 2 of their last 6 games.
  • Nottingham Forest have avoided defeat six times, and Southampton have not registered a single win. It is a joint record for both Nottingham Forest and Southampton. Forest’s unbeaten run against the Saints is their highest against any home team in the Premier League. Southampton’s winless run of six games against Forest is their joint highest record of not winning a game at home alongside Brighton.
  • Nottingham Forest goes into this game with a good recent record against promoted teams. They go into this game having won each of their last 2 games against promoted teams. The wins came last season against Burnley and Sheffield United. Prior to this, they had only 1 win in 19 games against promoted teams, drawing 12 and losing 6.
  • Southampton have had a disastrous home record in the Premier League going into this. The Saints have lost 14 of their last 21 games at the St. Marys Stadium. They have drawn 5 and won just 2 of those 21 games. Their defensive record has also been a mess, as they kept a clean sheet in just 1 of these 21 games.
  • Nottingham Forest against Bournemouth in the first game did the best in one aspect of the game. The Tricky Trees registered 8 shots on Bournemouth’s goal, which was the most any team in the Premier League achieved to do on match week one. Since their return in 2022, Forest has managed to beat this tally only once, as they registered 9 shots on target against Wolves last April.

Southampton vs Nottingham Forest Chance of Winning

The recent head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Southampton sees the Trickey Trees have the advantage going into this one. In the last 6 games between these two clubs in all competitions, Nottingham Forest has won 4 matchups; no games have ended in a draw, with Southampton winning on 2 occasions.

Southampton will take many positives from that defeat against Newcastle United in that first game. The Saints were totally dominant; however, the ball would not just go in for them. The game showed that Southampton are a well-drilled team under Russell Martin capable of making life tough for opponents at home. Southampton will be keen to rectify their poor home record against Forest in this game.

Nuno Santo’s Forest, however, is now a seasoned team in the Premier League. They are a slightly old-school team that thrives on keeping in good shape. Forest then looks to counter teams on the transition. That is what Newcastle United did against Southampton with 10 men. Southampton will need to be aware of that. If they can rectify their mistakes, then Southampton in front of their fans should have a better chance of winning.

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Southampton vs Nottingham Forest Predictions and Betting Tips

Most of the betting websites and the oddsmakers have labelled this game as a very even encounter with the home side having the slight advantage. The bookies have slightly favoured Southampton due to their performance against Newcastle United away from home. Southampton, even though they lost, played some good football against the Magpies and should have got something more from that game. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, failed to capitalise against a weakened Bournemouth team at home. Hence the bookies have backed Southampton due to their performance to go in as slight favourites to win.

Southampton's record at home last season was quite good, winning a total of 67% of their games at the St Mary's Stadium. Russell Martins’ side were also quite high-scoring in front of their home faithful last season in the Championship. The Saints last season averaged 2.38 goals from an expected goals ratio of 1.77. Nottingham Forest last season in the Premier League had a horrible record away from home. The Tricky Trees had a win rate of just 21% away from the City Ground last season. Their scoring record on the road was also very subpar.

Nottingham Forest last season averaged 1.16 goals from an expected goals ratio of 1.20. In terms of the defensive stats, Nottingham Forest conceded 1.95 goals away from home. Southampton in the Championship conceded just 1.25 goals on average.

Here are our tips and predictions for this game. We expect both Southampton and Nottingham Forest to score in this game. Our pick in this game is for both teams to score a combined tally of under 2.5 goals. Both teams have the ability to score goals, but they both are not high-scoring teams. Hence, we do expect a few goals in this game on Saturday.

We do not expect any team to get a clean sheet in this game. Southampton have kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 10 games, and Forest are worse off with 2 in their last 10 games. Both teams have a tendency of conceding. We expect this game to be very busy and scrappy in the centre of midfield. Flynn Downes for Southampton last week made 2 tackles and committed a total of 5 fouls. Our prediction is for him to get a yellow card in this game. We do expect Nottingham Forest to play slightly on the defence, and hence we back Ibrahim Sangare to make 3 or more tackles easily in this game. Sangare got 5 tackles against Bournemouth last week.

Southampton have the better record when it comes to scoring first. The Saints have broken the deadlock in six of their last 10 games. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have scored first in 5 of their last 10 games. We do back the home side in Southampton to get on the scoresheet first. The first game after promotion at home always tends to be special, and that atmosphere could be intimidating for Forest, enabling Southampton to score early.

In terms of scoring for Nottingham Forest, we will continue to back striker Chris Wood to score on Saturday. Wood was on target in the first game against Bournemouth and continues to remain Nottingham’s talisman. Wood now has 14 goals from his last 20 starts in the Premier League. The Kiwi international however has never scored in his opening 2 games of the Premier League. If he does score on Saturday, then it will be the first time he would have scored in each of his first 2 games of the season.

For Southampton, we will back Ben Brereton Diaz to score in this game. The Chilean striker had his chances in the first game but he failed to capitalise. Diaz continues to be quite a lethal marksman in front of goal. Adam Armstrong, however, is a safer shout, as he does currently tend to play more minutes than Diaz.

Final Prediction:Southampton to beat Nottingham Forest.

Southampton Player List

Goalkeepers: Alex McCarthy, Joe Lumley, Mateusz Lis, Gavin Bazunu

Defenders: Kyle Walker-Peters, Ryan Manning, Jack Stephens, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Ronnie Edwards, James Bree, Nathan Wood, Yukinari Sugawara, Charlie Taylor, Juan Larios, Jan Bedranek

Midfielders: Flynn Downes, Joe Aribo, Will Smallbone, Adam Lallana, Kamaldeen Sulemana, Carlos Alcaraz, Samuel Edozie, Shea Charles, Sam Amo-Ameyaw, Tyler Dibling

Attackers:Adam Armstrong, Ross Stewart, Ben Brereton Diaz, Sekou Mara.

Southampton Playing XI

Player

Role

Alex McCarthy

Goalkeeper

Yukinari Sugawara

Defender

Taylor Harwood-Bellis

Defender

Jan Bedranek

Defender

Jack Stephens

Defender

Kyle Walker-Peters

Defender

Flynn Downes

Midfielder

William Smallbone

Midfielder

Joe Aribo

Attacker

Ben Brereton Diaz

Attacker

Adam Armstrong

Attacker

Southampton Team Form(Last five games): L, D, D, W, L

Nottingham Forest Players List

Goalkeepers: Matt Turner, Matz Sels, Carlos Miguel dos Santos Pereira

Defenders: Joe Worrall, Nico Williams, Andrew Omobamidele, Omar Richards, Harry Toffolo, Willy Boly, Ola Aina, Zach Abbott, Nikola Milenkovic

Midfielders: Morgan Gibbs-White, Nicolas Dominquez, Ryan Yates, Danilo, Josh Bowler, Elliot Anderson, Ibrahim Sangare

Attackers: Taiwo Awoniyi, Chris Wood, Anthony Elanga, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Eric Moreira, Joao Silva, Emmanuel Dennis, Ui-Jo Hwang.

Nottingham Forest Playing XI

Player

Role

Matz Sels

Goalkeeper

Nico Williams

Defender

Willy Boly

Defender

Murillo

Defender

Ola Aina

Defender

Ibrahima Sangare

Midfielder

Ryan Yates

Midfielder

Morgan Gibbs-White

Midfielder

Callum Hudson-Odoi

Midfielder

Chris Wood

Attacker

Anthony Elanga

Attacker

Nottingham Forest Team Form(Last five games): D, W, D, L, W

Southampton vs Nottingham Forest Head-To-Head

Matches Played:118

Southampton wins:39

Nottingham Forest wins:52

Matches are drawn:27

Southampton vs Nottingham Forest Betting Odds

Southampton to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.63.

Nottingham Forest to win the match (PARIMATCH): 2.82.

Match to end in a draw (PARIMATCH): 3.31.

The betting odds have been calculated based on team performances in previous matches, player records etc. Odds are subject to change.

Our Prediction

Favorites to win

Southampton

The bookies have backed the home side in Southampton to get the better of Nottingham Forest. The odds difference between the two teams is very close, as this could be anyone’s game. Southampton have not done well playing at home in the Premier League the last time they featured; however, they are under a new manager in Russell Martin, who did very well in the Championship last year. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, should have gotten more in their game against Bournemouth. We do believe that Southampton have a better chance of winning this game; however, a draw cannot also be ruled out here. The risk takers could get better odds if they predict a draw, as Forest and Southampton drew 9 and 10 games, respectively, last season. We do back Southampton to edge this, however. Our score prediction is a 2-1 win at the St. Marys.
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